Walter Jacob Eyerdam

Abstract After many decades of effective control of stem rust caused by the Puccinia graminis f.sp. tritici, (hereafter Pgt) the reported emergence of race TTKSK/Ug99 of Pgt in Uganda reignited concerns about epidemics worldwide because ∼90% of world wheat cultivars had no resistance to the new race. Since it was initially detected in Uganda in 1998, Ug99 variants have now been identified in thirteen countries in Africa and the Middle East. Stem rust has been a major problem in the past, and concern is increasing about the risk of return to Central and East Asia. Whilst control programs in North America and Europe relied on the use of resistant cultivars in combination with eradication of barberry (Berberis spp.), the alternate host required for the stem rust pathogen to complete its full lifecycle, the focus in East Asia was principally on the use of resistant wheat cultivars. Here, we investigate potential airborne transmission pathways for stem rust outbreaks in the Middle East to reach East Asia using an integrated modelling framework combining estimates of fungal spore deposition from an atmospheric dispersion model, environmental suitability for spore germination, and crop calendar information. We consider the role of mountain ranges in restricting transmission pathways, and we incorporate a representation of a generic barberry species into the lifecycle. We find viable transmission pathways to East Asia from the Middle East to the north via Central Asia and to the south via South Asia and that an initial infection in the Middle East could persist in East Asia for up to three years due to the presence of the alternate host. Our results indicate the need for further assessment of barberry species distributions in East Asia and appropriate methods for targeted surveillance and mitigation strategies should stem rust incidence increase in the Middle East region.

Pinyon–juniper (PJ) woodlands are among the most widespread ecosystems in rangelands of western North America, supporting diverse wildlife habitat, recreation, grazing, and cultural/spiritual enrichment. Anticipating future distribution shifts under changing climate will be critical to climate adaptation and conservation efforts in these ecosystems. Here, we evaluate drivers of PJ tree species’ distributions and project changes in response to future climate change. We developed species distribution models with dryland-focused predictors to project environmental suitability changes across the entirety of three pinyon and six juniper species ranges. We identify areas of robust suitability change by combining suitability projections from multiple emissions scenarios and time periods. PJ species’ suitabilities respond to many temperature and moisture covariates expected to change in the future. Projected responses among PJ species are highly variable, ranging from modest declines with concurrent gains for overall little net change to wide-ranging declines with no gains for overall range contractions. Environmental suitability is projected to decline broadly across the arid United States Southwest and remain relatively stable across the northern Great Basin and Colorado Plateau. Our results suggest unique responses of PJ species to future climate change. We found that species were projected to experience more losses than gains in suitability, for overall range shrinks rather than shifts. Land managers have the capacity to increase woodland resilience to drought, and our results can inform rangeland-wide management planning and conservation efforts in PJ woodlands.

Nonnative invasive plants (weeds) negatively impact native ecosystems, and their effects are likely to increase with continuing global trade. Biological weed control has been employed as a cost-effective and sustainable management option for weeds in the USA since 1902. Biological control programs require careful prioritization of target weeds to ensure the most appropriate targets are selected to obtain the greatest beneficial outcomes with available resources. The Biological Control Target Selection (BCTS) system was developed by researchers in South Africa as an objective, transparent approach to prioritizing new weed biological control targets. The BCTS system was recently modified and applied to 295 state-regulated weeds in the western USA for which no biological control agents have yet been released. This paper presents the results of that application, identifying the most suitable candidates for new biological control programs as well as problematic weeds for which the likelihood of successful biological control is low.Top-ranked species in the western USA are biennial or perennial weeds that occur in stable habitats, are established in more than one state, have traits deemed difficult to control with conventional methods, have large negative impacts and no conflicts of interest outside of the horticultural industry, and have substantial information available on potential biocontrol agents. Fifteen of the 20 top-ranked species are already targets of ongoing biological control programs in the USA. When species with current programs are excluded from the analysis, the next 20 top-ranked species largely differ by having less information available on potential biological control agents and having native or economically important congeners in the USA. Results from this framework provide valuable insights to the prioritization of current and future biocontrol research programs in the western USA.

Saussurea is one of the largest and most rapidly evolving genera within the Asteraceae, comprising approximately 520 species from the Northern Hemisphere. A comprehensive infrageneric classification, supported by robust phylogenetic trees and corroborated by morphological and other data, has not yet been published. For the first time, we recovered a well-resolved nuclear phylogeny of Saussurea consisting of four main clades, which was also supported by morphological data. Our analyses show that ancient hybridization is the most likely source of deep cytoplasmic-nuclear conflict in Saussurea, and a phylogeny based on nuclear data is more suitable than one based on chloroplast data for exploring the infrageneric classification of Saussurea. Based on the nuclear phylogeny obtained and morphological characters, we proposed a revised infrageneric taxonomy of Saussurea, which includes four subgenera and 13 sections. Specifically, 1) S. sect. Cincta, S. sect. Gymnocline, S. sect. Lagurostemon, and S. sect. Strictae were moved from S. subg. Saussurea to S. subg. Amphilaena, 2) S. sect. Pseudoeriocoryne was moved from S. subg. Eriocoryne to S. subg. Amphilaena, and 3) S. sect. Laguranthera was moved from S. subg. Saussurea to S. subg. Theodorea.

In this study, we explored the distributions of grass genera in the Southern Cone (SC) of South America, applying several phylogenetic diversity (PD) metrics and randomization tests. Grasses appear to have been present in South America since their early evolution as tropical understory species more than 60 Ma. During the course of evolution, grasses have adapted to all terrestrial biomes and become one of the most successful plant families on earth. At present, the SC contains nearly all terrestrial biomes and a wide range of humid to arid ecoregions. Analyzing 126.514 point occurrences and four plastid markers for 148 genera (91% of the native grass genera), we found that tropical humid regions hold the highest PD, with no observed bias in branch lengths. These results indicate that niche conservatism dominates the diversity pattern of grasses in the SC. We found significantly low PD in the Dry Chaco and in the Patagonian Steppe, which suggest ecological filtering in both warm and cold arid regions. The Patagonian Steppe also holds significantly longer branches than expected by chance, as the native grass flora is mainly composed of distantly related Pooideae genera with a northern hemisphere origin. Short branches are found in the Uruguayan Savanna, suggesting that these grasslands could be a cradle for grass diversity within the SC. The dated phylogeny supported the current view of a relatively recent evolution of the family within the SC, with most diversification taking place from the middle Miocene and onwards.

Non‐native annual grasses can dramatically alter fire frequency and reduce forage quality and biodiversity in the ecosystems they invade. Effective management techniques are needed to reduce these undesirable invasive species and maintain ecosystem services. Well‐timed management strategies, such as grazing, that are applied when invasive grasses are active prior to native plants can control invasive species spread and reduce their impact; however, anticipating the timing of key phenological stages that are susceptible to management over vast landscapes is difficult, as the phenology of these species can vary greatly over time and space. To address this challenge, we created range‐wide phenology forecasts for two problematic invasive annual grasses: cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), and red brome (Bromus rubens). We tested a suite of 18 mechanistic phenology models using observations from monitoring experiments, volunteer science, herbarium records, timelapse camera imagery, and downscaled gridded climate data to identify the models that best predicted the dates of flowering and senescence of the two invasive grass species. We found that the timing of flowering and senescence of cheatgrass and red brome were best predicted by photothermal time models that had been adjusted for topography using gridded continuous heat‐insolation load index values. Phenology forecasts based on these models can help managers make decisions about when to schedule management actions such as grazing to reduce undesirable invasive grasses and promote forage production, quality, and biodiversity in grasslands; to predict the timing of greatest fire risk after annual grasses dry out; and to select remote sensing imagery to accurately map invasive grasses across topographic and latitudinal gradients. These phenology models also have the potential to be operationalized for within‐season or within‐year decision support.

AbstractPremiseClines—or the geographic sorting of phenotypes across continual space—provide an opportunity to understand the interaction of dispersal, selection, and history in structuring polymorphisms.MethodsIn this study, we combine field‐sampling, genetics, climatic analyses, and machine learning to understand a flower color polymorphism in the wide‐ranging desert annual Encelia farinosa.ResultsWe find evidence for replicated transitions in disk floret color from brown to yellow across spatial scales, with the most prominent cline stretching ~100 km from southwestern United States into México. Because population structure across the cline is minimal, selection is more likely than drift to have an important role in determining cline width.ConclusionsGiven that the cline aligns with a climatic transition but there is no evidence for pollinator preference for flower color, we hypothesize that floret color likely varies as a function of climatic conditions.

Premise Cleomaceae is an important model clade for studies of evolutionary processes including genome evolution, floral form diversification, and photosynthetic pathway evolution. Diversification and divergence patterns in Cleomaceae remain tangled as research has been restricted by its worldwide distribution, limited genetic sampling and species coverage, and a lack of definitive fossil calibration points.MethodsWe used target sequence capture and the Angiosperms353 probe set to perform a phylogenetic study of Cleomaceae. We estimated divergence times and biogeographic analyses to explore the origin and diversification of the family. Seed morphology across extant taxa was documented with multifocal image‐stacking techniques and morphological characters were extracted, analyzed, and compared to fossil records.ResultsWe recovered a well‐supported and resolved phylogenetic tree of Cleomaceae generic relationships that includes 236 (~86%) species. We identified 11 principal clades and confidently placed Cleomella as sister to the rest of the family. Our analyses suggested that Cleomaceae and Brassicaceae diverged ~56 mya, and Cleomaceae began to diversify ~53 mya in the Palearctic and Africa. Multiple transatlantic disjunct distributions were identified. Seeds were imaged from 218 (~80%) species in the family and compared to all known fossil species.ConclusionsOur results represent the most comprehensive phylogenetic study of Cleomaceae to date. We identified transatlantic disjunctions and proposed explanations for these patterns, most likely either long‐distance dispersals or contractions in latitudinal distributions caused by climate change over geological timescales. We found that seed morphology varied considerably but mostly mirrored generic relationships.

Understanding the maintenance and shift in reproductive strategies is a fundamental question in evolutionary research. Although many efforts have been made to compare different reproductive strategies, the association between reproductive strategies and lineage divergence is largely unknown. To explore the impact of different reproductive strategies on lineage divergence, we investigated the evolution of clonality in Saxifraga sect. Irregulares + Heterisia . By integrating several lines of evidence, we found that the loss of clonality in Irregulares + Heterisia was associated with a progressive increase in diversification rate and intraspecific morphological diversity but with a reduction in species distribution range. Our findings provide insights into the ecological and evolutionary effects of different reproductive strategies, suggesting the necessity of integrating clonality into ecological and evolutional research.

The Khanka Lowland forest-steppe is the most eastern outpost of the Eurasian steppe biome. It includes unique grassland plant communities with rare steppe species. These coenosis have changed under the influence of anthropogenic activity, especially during the last 100 years and included both typical steppe species and nemoral mesophytic species. To distinguish these ecological groups of plants the random forest method with three datasets of environmental variables was applied. Specifically, a model of classification with the most important bioindices to predict a mesophytic ecological group of plants with a sensitivity greater than 80% was constructed. The data demonstrated the presence of steppe species that arrived at different times in the Primorye Territory. Most of these species are associated with the Mongolian-Daurian relict steppe complex and habit in the Khanka Lowland. Other species occur only in mountains in Primorye Territory and do not persist in the Khanka Lowland. These findings emphasize the presence of relict steppe communities with a complex of true steppe species in the Khanka Lowland. Steppe communities exhibit features of anthropogenic influence definitely through the long land use period but are not anthropogenic in origin. The most steppe species are located at the eastern border of distribution in the Khanka Lowlands and are valuable in terms of conservation and sources of information about steppe species origin and the emergence of the steppe biome as a whole.