Ciência habilitada por dados de espécimes

Zhao, Y., G. A. O’Neill, and T. Wang. 2023. Predicting fundamental climate niches of forest trees based on species occurrence data. Ecological Indicators 148: 110072. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110072

Species climate niche models (CNMs) have been widely used for assessing climate change impact, developing conservation strategies and guiding assisted migration for adaptation to future climates. However, the CNMs built based on species occurrence data only reflect the species’ realized niche, which can overestimate the potential loss of suitable habitat of existing forests and underestimate the potential of assisted migration to mitigate climate change. In this study, we explored building a fundamental climate niche model using widely available species occurrence data with two important forest tree species, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii Franco.), which were introduced to many countries worldwide. We first compared and optimized three individual modeling techniques and their ensemble by adjusting the ratio of presence to absence (p/a) observations using an innovative approach to predict the realized climate niche of the two species. We then extended the realized climate niches to their fundamental niches by determining a new cut-off threshold based on species occurrence data beyond the native distributions. We found that the ensemble model comprising Random Forest and Maxent had the best performance and identified a common cut-off threshold of 0.3 for predicting the fundamental climate niches of the two species, which is likely applicable to other species. We then predicted the fundamental climate niches of the two species under current and future climate conditions. Our study demonstrated a novel approach for predicting species’ fundamental climate niche with high accuracy using only species occurrence data, including both presence and absence data points. It provided a new tool for assessing climate change impact on the future loss of existing forests and implementing assisted migration for better adapting to future climates.

Xue, T., S. R. Gadagkar, T. P. Albright, X. Yang, J. Li, C. Xia, J. Wu, and S. Yu. 2021. Prioritizing conservation of biodiversity in an alpine region: Distribution pattern and conservation status of seed plants in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Global Ecology and Conservation 32: e01885. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01885

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) harbors abundant and diverse plant life owing to its high habitat heterogeneity. However, the distribution pattern of biodiversity hotspots and their conservation status remain unclear. Based on 148,283 high-resolution occurrence coordinates of 13,450 seed plants, w…

Miller, E. F., R. E. Green, A. Balmford, P. Maisano Delser, R. Beyer, M. Somveille, M. Leonardi, et al. 2021. Bayesian Skyline Plots disagree with range size changes based on Species Distribution Models for Holarctic birds. Molecular Ecology 30: 3993–4004. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.16032

During the Quaternary, large climate oscillations impacted the distribution and demography of species globally. Two approaches have played a major role in reconstructing changes through time: Bayesian Skyline Plots (BSPs), which reconstruct population fluctuations based on genetic data, and Species …

González-Saucedo, Z. Y., A. González-Bernal, and E. Martínez-Meyer. 2021. Identifying priority areas for landscape connectivity for three large carnivores in northwestern Mexico and southwestern United States. Landscape Ecology 36: 877–896. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-020-01185-4

Context: Large carnivores are crucial to ecosystem functioning, as they enhance the biodiversity of the native communities in which they live. However, most large carnivores are threatened with extinction resulting from human persecution, habitat encroachment, and the loss of habitat connectivity. …

Brandt, A. J., P. J. Bellingham, R. P. Duncan, T. R. Etherington, J. D. Fridley, C. J. Howell, P. E. Hulme, et al. 2020. Naturalised plants transform the composition and function of the New Zealand flora. Biological Invasions 23: 351–366. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-020-02393-4

The New Zealand flora has a high proportion of endemic species but has been invaded by almost the same number of non-native plant species. To support management of invasive plant species, we provide an updated inventory of New Zealand’s naturalised flora and compare it with the native flora to ident…

Li, X., B. Li, G. Wang, X. Zhan, and M. Holyoak. 2020. Deeply digging the interaction effect in multiple linear regressions using a fractional-power interaction term. MethodsX 7: 101067. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2020.101067

In multiple regression Y ~ β0 + β1X1 + β2X2 + β3X1 X2 + ɛ., the interaction term is quantified as the product of X1 and X2. We developed fractional-power interaction regression (FPIR), using βX1M X2N as the interaction term. The rationale of FPIR is that the slopes of Y-X1 regression along the X2 gr…

Deb, J. C., G. Forbes, and D. A. MacLean. 2020. Modelling the spatial distribution of selected North American woodland mammals under future climate scenarios. Mammal Review 50: 440–452. https://doi.org/10.1111/mam.12210

North America has a diverse array of mammalian species. Model projections indicate significant variations in future climate conditions of North America, and the habitats of woodland mammals of this continent may be particularly sensitive to changes in climate.We report on the potential spatial distr…

Rotenberry, J. T., and P. Balasubramaniam. 2020. Connecting species’ geographical distributions to environmental variables: range maps versus observed points of occurrence. Ecography 43: 897–913. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04871

Connecting the geographical occurrence of a species with underlying environmental variables is fundamental for many analyses of life history evolution and for modeling species distributions for both basic and practical ends. However, raw distributional information comes principally in two forms: poi…

Menegotto, A., T. F. Rangel, J. Schrader, P. Weigelt, and H. Kreft. 2019. A global test of the subsidized island biogeography hypothesis A. M. C. dos Santos [ed.],. Global Ecology and Biogeography 29: 320–330. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13032

Aim: The decreasing capacity of area to predict species richness on small islands (the small‐island effect; SIE) seems to be one of the few exceptions of the species–area relationship. While most studies have focused on how to detect the SIE, the underlying ecological factors determining this patter…

Rankin, A. M., R. S. Schwartz, C. H. Floyd, and K. E. Galbreath. 2019. Contrasting consequences of historical climate change for marmots at northern and temperate latitudes. Journal of Mammalogy 100: 328–344. https://doi.org/10.1093/jmammal/gyz025

Many species that occupy high latitudes of North America were historically restricted to relatively small refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The geographic ranges of many of these species then expanded widely across the continent after glacial ice receded. In contrast, species whose LGM …